In the first round of Nigeria’s elections - for State government - held on 14th April, there were low turns outs, confusion about voter registration, and violence. The governing PDP has claimed results as high as 90% on an 85% turn out.
Deaths linked to the elections around the country are believed to be higher than 50. The worst of it was in the Niger Delta, the heart of Nigeria’s oil industry and economy, where corruption earns millions for politicians. The violence has left at least 21 dead, though local monitors put the number far higher at over 40.
Of these, 7 were police officers, killed by the notorious Ateke Tom gang, who have been linked to vote rigging, oil theft and clashes with other gangs that have brought chaos to Nigeria’s South South since the last elections in 2003 (when gangs were first armed by politicians.)
Presidential Elections are on 21st April. It is unclear how the opposition, the voters - and especially the restive Niger Delta - will react to the scale of election malpractice, but the Nigerian military is on high alert.
Generally, the public mood in Nigeria – and among Nigerians abroad – isn’t one of imminent crisis, though. It’s more of a feeling of dejection, despair, disappointment.
The likely, incoming Yar’Adua administration of the governing PDP party has committed to progressive policies, including to addressing poverty and lingering issues of regional autonomy that have dogged Nigeria – Africa’s most populous and nationally diverse country – since independence. Yar’Adua is the outgoing Governor of Katsina State in the North of Nigeria, with a Muslim majority. He is viewed by many as a moderate with a good record on tackling corruption, which has long undermined every aspect of politics in Nigeria and led to a fundamental weakening of the state. His running made, Goodluck Jonathan, is the outgoing Governor of Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta.
The initial optimism many in Nigeria felt about the incoming PDP administration is now severely undermined by a questionable ballot. The assumed President-to-be Umaru Yar’Adua and the PDP will now have their work cut out to rebuild much of the positive voter response generated during the campaign, and to achieve a credible mandate in next weekend’s Presidential elections.
